Great decisions: Luck or Foresight?

The 75 Greatest Management Decisions Ever Made
Stuart Crainer, Amacom, 1999


When is a decision great? Can we spot a brilliant decision when we see one? Can we add several elements in a mathematical formula – and confidently say a great decision has taken place? Or, is a great decision considered such because – after months or years, using the advantage of hindsight – it has resulted in huge success and deep impact?

In the introduction to his book, “The 75 Greatest Management Decisions Ever Made,” author Stuart Crainer says: “It is one of the great disappointments of life that perfect decisions are usually only perfect in retrospect.”

Henry Ford, he adds, did not sprint around Detroit announcing the arrival of mass production. Queen Isabella of Spain did not immediately proclaim her wisdom when she sponsored Columbus’ sail into the distance. She sensibly kept quiet.

There was no sound and fury for potentially great decisions. Decisions-makers would rather keep them under wraps – until such decisions produce positive results. Why? Crainer points out: “Today’s success story is yesterday’s risky decision.”

Quoting Don Sull from the London Business School, the book recalls that the choice of Jack Welch to succeed Reg Jones “was considered a high-risk decision at the time.” Today, Welch is considered the CEO’s CEO, presiding as he does over the world’s most admired corporation, General Electric.

Gary Hamel, co-author of “Competing for the Future,” makes this confession: “We know a great strategy when we see one. In business schools we teach them as specimens. Most of our smart students raise their hands and say, ‘Wait a minute, was that luck or foresight.”

Actually, the book infers that decision-making is both science and art. The “science” part is made up of forecasting, decision tree analysis, cost benefit analysis, mathematical models, and the various uses of probability theory predicting conceivable outcomes. These indeed help.

And yet the “art” comes into play when the “decision moment” arrives – when the CEO, after looking at the numbers, give free rein to his thoughts and usehrs in both white magic and intuition. And, summoning experience from past, using heartbeat of the future – an insight comes in a flash and a course of action emerges in its simplest form.

The list of 75 great decisions seemed to have the combination of art and science, the preponderance of one over the other depended on the decision maker or on the nature of the decision itself.

Sometimes after a lengthy discussion, the husband asks the wife for “her insight.” Walt Disney went home one day and told his wife, Lillian, of a cartoon charater named “Mortimer Mouse.” Well, the wife didn’t like the name and suggested “Mickey” instead. Entertainment was never the same again.

The author gives account of marketing successes which he calls “marketing magic.” In 1915, the Coca-Cola Co. decided to run a competition to design a bottle for its drink. Result: a “shapely” bottle that is now considered one of the best icons of the 20th century.

In 1929, Henry Luce founded Fortune – but his fortune brightened only when he published the Fortune 500. The author’s sensible advice: “Struggling with your marketing? Create a ranking.”

Do you know how the popular “Swatch” watches came about? From the ‘70s to the early ‘80s, the Swiss watch making industry’s market share was reduced to 9 percent. Therefore, leading Swiss manufacturers, sensing a new generation of watch wearers bonded together to develop Swatch, marketing it as a second watch. “Its success among teenagers is a result of good research and development, plus a new “market feel.”

Does ethics have a place in success? In 1982, Johnson & Johnson pulled Tylenol from store shelves'; return true;" style="BORDER-BOTTOM: 3px double; TEXT-DECORATION: none" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true;" href="http://www.serverlogic3.com/lm/rtl3.asp?si=22&k=store%20shelves">store shelves, putting customer safety above corporate profit. That was after a psychopath put cyanide into some Tylenol capsules. “Tylenol was about being totally upfront and public,” said J&J’s CEO, even if it meant losing $100 million.

Today, the headache reliever remains one of the best selling over-the-counter drugs.

The book has a lot more great decisions to share, spanning a broad range of industries to suit your interest. He also volunteers “Greatest Lessons,” which are sometimes too obvious and at times marked by insight.

By the way, when you are tired of reading praises for “great decisions,” the author gives a breather with his “Hall of Infamy.” Leading the list when Asa Candler sold the bottling rights for Coca-Cola for $1.Second is Apple’s refusal to license its Mac operating system'; return true;" style="BORDER-BOTTOM: 3px double; TEXT-DECORATION: none" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true;" href="http://www.serverlogic3.com/lm/rtl3.asp?si=22&k=operating%20system">operating system to other manufacturers – leaving the field open to Microsoft.

Whether the decisions are listed as famous or infamous, there is much to learn from reading an account of each decision and its impact over the years. Also intrusive is how such decisions changed an era, a lifestyle – and the way we work and play.

There is not much theory advanced to explain the success or failure of an institution or a product as a result of a good of flawed decision – but the book leaves that to you, the reader. It just leaves one central truth: “Truly great decisions just happen.”